Eli Lilly, soms is een lijn genoeg

Laatste reactie 23/11/2016 23:09 door Henk
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Henk Huising 5 jaar geleden geplaatst
Even kijken hoe de opening van morgen verloopt. Bij een hogere opening ga ik voor het vullen van de gap bij 72,49.
Henk Huising 5 jaar geleden geplaatst
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Eli Lilly and Company shares plunged 11% Wednesday to a two-year low, after the company’s treatment for people with mild dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease failed to meet the primary endpoint in a late-stage clinical trial.

The failure, which several Wall Street analysts said was disappointing, could have negative implications for Eli Lilly’s LLY, +0.04% Alzheimer’s portfolio and competitors including Biogen Inc. BIIB, -0.04% and Merck & Co. Inc. MRK, -0.10%

See also: These simple lifestyle changes can prevent or slow Alzheimer’s

More specifics about the solanezumab drug, expected the night of Dec. 9 during a meeting of the Clinical Trials on Alzheimer’s Disease (CTAD), could have repercussions for what’s called the “beta amyloid hypothesis” in Alzheimer’s disease treatments, which target protein fragments that some believe are responsible for the disease.

Eli Lilly said it would not pursue approval for the drug to treat mild dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease and that it will “evaluate the impact of these results on the development plans for solanezumab and our other Alzheimer’s pipeline assets.” The trial failure is expected to result in a fourth-quarter charge of 9 cents per share after tax, the company said.

The shares, which suffered the biggest one-day percentage decline in eight years, closed at the lowest level since Nov. 26, 2014. They have dropped 19% year-to-date, while the SPDR Health Care Select Sector exchange-traded fund XLV, +0.39% has slipped 3.9% and S&P 500 index SPX, +0.08% has gained 7.9%.

Read also: What to know about Alzheimer’s and retirement planning

The latest trial results are solanezumab’s third late-stage failure, noted Leerink analyst Seamus Fernandez.

“Despite moving earlier into the disease progression (mild patients) and using biomarker to select patients (beta amyloid PET imaging), the treatment effect still proved to be not sufficient to result in a significant slowing of cognitive decline,” he said. “This result will no doubt cast a shadow over LLY’s Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) pipeline portfolio, which is heavily based on the beta amyloid hypothesis.”

The company’s portfolio of Alzheimer’s research includes “many other promising approaches,” Eli Lilly executive vice president of science and technology Jan Lundberg said.

Though investors took the solanezumab results as a negative for Eli Lilly and competitors in the Alzheimer’s space, Wall Street analysts were more positive in the long-term.

Within Eli Lilly’s results, some details even have positive hints for the beta amyloid hypothesis, said Evercore ISI’s John Scotti. A p-value for the primary endpoint of cognition was not statistically significant but “does suggest a trend of favor of [solanezumab],” he said.

Biogen’s treatment differs from Eli Lilly’s, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael J. Yee, since “it has shown clear [statistically significant] reduction of beta amyloid via imaging, while others have not,” earlier small studies have shown clear statistically significant cognitive benefits and it is a different antibody than Lilly’s treatment.

“These are different antibodies with different amyloid targets,” he said, predicting Biogen—which saw shares drop 3.8%—will present positive data at the December CTAD meeting.

Eli Lilly’s negative results could even be a boon for Biogen, said Bernstein analyst Ronny Gal, since the results’ “trend toward positivity” — cognitive decline didn’t decline at a statistically significant rate compared to the placebo — “seems to be the best result for Biogen as it suggests that the amyloid beta hypothesis seems correct and yet this eliminates an early competitor.”

Shares of Merck, which is also developing a treatment based on amyloid beta reduction, pared earlier losses of as much as 3% to close down just 0.1%.

Read also: Merck’s Alzheimer’s drug data fuel hopes for new treatment

AC Immune SA ACIU, -15.84% tumbled 16% to $11.53.

But Leerink analyst Paul Matteis remained “cautiously optimistic” about the company’s crenezumab, which he said is similar to Biogen’s aducanumab but has higher doses. Matteis reiterated an outperform rating on the shares, though he emphasized the importance of December’s data on the beta amyloid hypothesis.

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Topic gestart 23 November 2016 om 23:06